A Dempster–Shafer Enhanced Framework for Urban Road Planning Using a Model-Based Digital Twin and MCDM Techniques

Abstract

Rapid urbanization in developing countries presents a critical challenge in the need for extensive and appropriate road expansion, which in turn contributes to traffic congestion and air pollution. Urban areas are economic engines, but their efficiency and livability rely on well-designed road networks. This study proposes a novel approach to urban road planning that leverages the power of several innovative techniques. The cornerstone of this approach is a digital twin model of the urban environment. This digital twin model facilitates the evaluation and comparison of road development proposals. To support informed decision-making, a multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) framework is used, enabling planners to consider various factors such as traffic flow, environmental impact, and economic considerations. Spatial data and 3D visualizations are also provided to enrich the analysis. Finally, the Dempster–Shafer theory (DST) provides a robust mathematical framework to address uncertainties inherent in the weighting process. The proposed approach was applied to planning for both new road constructions and existing road expansions. By combining these elements, the model offers a sustainable and knowledge-based approach to optimize urban road planning. Results from integrating weights obtained through two weighting methods, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the Bayesian best–worst Method (B-BWM), showed a very high weight for the “worn-out urban texture” criterion and a meager weight for “noise pollution”. Finally, the cost path algorithm was used to evaluate the results from all three methods (AHP, B-BWM, and DST). The high degree of similarity in the results from these methods suggests a stable outcome for the proposed approach. Analysis of the study area revealed the following significant challenge for road planning: 35% of the area was deemed unsuitable, with only a tiny portion (4%) being suitable for road development based on the selected criteria. This highlights the need to explore alternative approaches or significantly adjust the current planning process.