A Demographic Turnpike for Long-Range Manpower Planning in Developing Economies

Abstract

Demographic considerations are involved in a number of ways in planning for economic development. The size, growth, composition, and distribution of the population and the characteristics of its working-age contingent are all important determinants of consumption, production, and employment. When employment has become a high-priority goal of economic policy, these demographic factors are more explicitly incorporated in planning and frequently taken as a point of departure. This is particularly true in the less developed nations. The importance of demographic variables in economic planning also derives from their being a consequence of economic and social development. Mortality, fertility, composition, distribution, and participation in the labor force are all affected by economic development policy and so are social expectations and the aspirations of a population for improving its standard of living. This chapter presents a dynamic model for exploring whether economic needs and the aspirations of a population for type and place of employment is largely satisfied and if not totally satisfied at least compensated partially by monetary means.