Abstract
Public support is an important factor in failure or success of the government decisions with respect to the electricity generation mix, which highlights the necessity of developing an electricity mix that reflects social preferences and acceptance. This study explores heterogeneity in social preferences for power sources and develops an electricity mix from a demand-side perspective. The study utilizes the choice-based conjoint survey and latent class model, and bases its empirical analysis on South Korea’s electric power sector. Results demonstrate that preferences for power sources in Korean society consist of two classes: one that is sensitive to the environment and one that is sensitive to risk. An electricity mix for Korea that reflects social preferences is 16.5–19.8% coal-fired, 13.3–24.9% liquefied natural gas (LNG), 9.0–11.2% oil, 22.3–32.9% nuclear, and 18.5–38.9% renewables, depending on the scenario. The study confirms that renewables are the power source with the least potential to cause social conflict, compared to nuclear and coal-fired sources. Moreover, increasing the proportion of renewables (currently only 3.9%) while decreasing the proportion of coal-fired power sources (currently 39.9%) to less than half its current level will result in an electricity mix that is accordance with social preferences in the long run.
Highlights
The national energy mix is important as a strategic plan to fulfill the objectives of energy policies.The electricity mix, which is the core of the energy mix, is the basis for the national electric-power policy and directly affects the expansion of electric-power facilities and the investment plan
This study assumes that there are multiple respondent classes for power source preference and utilizes latent class model (LCM) to reflect the heterogeneity in social preferences
The relative importance (IR) of Tables 3 and 4 shows that class 1 is relatively sensitive to the environmental attribute among power source attributes and consists of 313 respondents (50.9% of all respondents), and class 2 is relatively sensitive to the risk attribute and consists of 302 respondents
Summary
The national energy mix is important as a strategic plan to fulfill the objectives of energy policies.The electricity mix, which is the core of the energy mix, is the basis for the national electric-power policy and directly affects the expansion of electric-power facilities and the investment plan. The national energy mix is important as a strategic plan to fulfill the objectives of energy policies. It is important to the future electric-power supply. The established electricity mix influences policies for primary energy sources, such as oil and gas, and has become a major issue in energy policies. Most countries try to build a stable electric-power supply system by planning the optimal electricity mix and designing corresponding policies. To provide a stable electric-power supply, a country generally needs an electricity mix comprising various fuel sources. This is especially true for countries like South Korea, which is highly dependent on energy imports (as of 2016, South Korea’s dependence on energy imports was about 95% [1])
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