A demand forecasting model for urban air mobility in Chengdu, China

Abstract

The successful application of new technologies such as remotely piloted aircraft systems, distributed electric propulsion systems, and automatic control systems on electric vertical take-off and landing(eVTOL) aircraft has prompted Urban Air Mobility (UAM) to be mentioned frequently. UAM is a newly raised transport mode of using eVTOL aircraft to transport people and cargo in urban areas, which is thought to share some of the traffic on the ground. One of the prerequisites for UAM to operate on a regular basis is that its demand can support the operating costs, so forecasting UAM demand is necessary. We conduct UAM demand forecasting based on the four-step method, focusing on improving the third-step modal split, and propose a demand forecasting model based on the logit model. The model combines a nested logit (NL) model with a multinomial logit (MNL) model to solve the problem of non-existent UAM sharing rates. We use Chengdu, China as an example, and focus on forecasting the UAM traffic demand in 2030 with the help of the four-step method. The results show that UAM is suitable for shared operation during the early stages. With a fully shared operation, the UAM share rate increases by 0.73% for every kilometer increase in distance. Moreover, UAM is more competitive than other modes for delivery distances exceeding 15 ​km. Finally, using the distributions of the share rate and traffic flow pattern from the simulation, we propose the routes that can be prioritized for UAM operations in Chengdu.