Abstract

The rise in dementia among the aging Korean population will quickly create a financial burden on society, but timely recognition of early warning for dementia and proper responses to the occurrence of dementia can enhance medical treatment. Health behavior and medical service usage data are relatively more accessible than clinical data, and a prescreening tool with easily accessible data could be a good solution for dementia-related problems. In this paper, we apply a deep neural network (DNN) to prediction of dementia using health behavior and medical service usage data, using data from 7031 subjects aged over 65 collected from the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES) in 2001 and 2005. In the proposed model, principal component analysis (PCA) featuring and min/max scaling are used to preprocess and extract relevant background features. We compared our proposed methodology, a DNN/scaled PCA, with five well-known machine learning algorithms. The proposed methodology shows 85.5% of the area under the curve (AUC), a better result than that using other algorithms. The proposed early prescreening method for possible dementia can be used by both patients and doctors.

Highlights

  • Dementia is closely related globally to elderly disability and dependency

  • We examine factors affecting dementia incidence and develop a predictive model based on scaled principal component analysis (PCA) and deep neural network (DNN), employing the 2001 and 2005 Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES)

  • We considered the individual subjective health status, and the interconnected relationships based on the proposed scaled PCA and DNN

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Summary

Introduction

Psychological, social, and economic aspects of dementia affect a diverse group of people, including individuals with dementia as well as their caregivers, family members, and society in general. According to World Alzheimer’s report in 2015 [2], the prevalence rate of dementia in 2015 in the Asia Pacific High Income demographic, which includes. The increased rate of dementia patients is expected to reach about 56% between 2015 and 2030 [1]. The increasing prevalence of dementia patients in Korea has caused treatment costs and social burdens for dementia patients to significantly increase. The National Assembly Budget Office has asserted that the social costs of dementia will increase from 11.7 trillion won in 2013 to 23.1 trillion won in 2030 and 34.2 trillion won in 2040 [3]. Despite the importance of establishing dementia policy, epidemiological studies related to dementia are deficient, creating a great need for related research

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