A deep learning-based approach for predicting in-flight estimated time of arrival

Abstract

AbstractPredictability is key for efficient and safe air traffic management. In particular, accurately estimating time of arrival for current passenger flights may help terminal controllers to plan ahead and optimize airport operations in terms of safety and resource allocation. While traditional physics-based simulations are still widely used, they are complex to model and often fail to include many factors affecting the progress of a flight. In this paper, we propose a deep learning approach based on LSTM that leverages the 4D trajectory of the flight and weather data at the destination airport, to accurately predict estimated time of arrival. We evaluate our model on flights arriving at Adolfo Suárez-Madrid Barajas airport (Spain), in the first three quarters of 2022, achieving a mean absolute error of 2.65 min over the entire flight and reporting competitive short- and long-term predictions at different spatial and temporal horizons.