A decomposition‐based multi‐time dimension long short‐term memory model for short‐term electric load forecasting

Abstract

Short-term load forecasting is essential to power systems management. However, most existing forecasting methods fail to fully consider how to rationally integrate the intrinsic time-related dimensions of electric load data and the decomposition methods into machine learning models so that their prediction accuracy and robustness still have much room for improvement. To solve this problem, this paper proposes a decomposition-based multi-time dimension long short-term memory (DB-MTD-LSTM) model for short-term electric load forecasting (STELF). In DB-MTD-LSTM, empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (CEEMDAN) is first introduced to smooth non-linear non-stationary electric load data and constrain the modal aliasing or noise of decomposed electric load data in the traditional decomposed method. A joint relevant time dimensions method (JRTDM) is then developed using autocorrelation analysis to rationally extract the temporal characteristics of decomposed data in multiple time dimensions. An improved LSTM called MTD-LSTM is developed by combining JRTDM with LSTM, which can effectively apply multi-dimensional time characteristics of the decomposed load to improve the predictive accuracy and robustness. Several datasets from Australia and China are performed to check the predictive performance of DB-MTD-LSTM. Experimental results verify that DB-MTD-LSTM has better predictive accuracy and satisfactory robustness compared with state-of-the-art and conventional predictive models.