A decomposition analysis of sociodemographic factors and non-cigarette tobacco use as contributors to the change in smoking rates in South Africa between 2017/18 and 2021.

Abstract

Trends data up to 2018 suggest that tobacco smoking was increasing in South Africa (SA), but only limited information is available on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the current pattern of use of tobacco and nicotine products (TNPs). To assess trends in sociodemographic patterns in the use of TNPs and the extent to which sociodemographic factors and non-cigarette tobacco use may explain possible changes in rates of TNP use between 2017/18 and 2021. Data from three waves (2017, 2018 and 2021) of the South African Social Attitudes Survey (total N=8 140) were analysed. The sociodemographic correlates of current daily and non-daily use of factory-manufactured cigarettes (FMCs), roll-your-own (RYO) cigarettes, waterpipe/hubbly, electronic cigarettes (ECigs), snuff (a smokeless tobacco) and any combination of FMCs, RYO cigarettes and waterpipe/hubbly ('current smoking') in 2017/18 (pre-pandemic) were compared with those for 2021 (during the pandemic). Chi-square analyses and generalised linear models were used to compare the prevalence of TNP use between the two periods. A Blinda-Oaxaca decomposition analysis was also used to explore the roles of various sociodemographic factors, including any differences in the use of TNPs, that may explain any observed differences in smoking rates between 2017/18 and 2021. Current smoking increased significantly from 22.4% (95% confidence interval (CI) 20.4 - 24.5) in 2017/18 to 27.6% (95% CI 24.3 - 31.1) in 2021 (p=0.009). Smoking of FMCs did not change significantly overall between these two periods (20.1% v. 22.1%; p=0.240), except for a significant increase among those who self-identified as black African and a decrease among those who self-identified as coloured and those currently employed. However, the use of waterpipe/hubbly, ECigs, RYO cigarettes and snuff increased significantly. Women, individuals aged <35 years and black Africans had the largest increase in waterpipe/hubbly and ECig use. A decomposition analysis showed that increased waterpipe/hubbly and RYO use explained 52% and 15%, respectively, of the increase in smoking rates, while lower employment during 2021 compared with 2017/18 explained 15% of the increase in smoking rates during 2021. The use of all TNPs continued to increase in SA, particularly among women and unemployed people. These findings have policy and practice implications for addressing socioeconomic disparities in tobacco-related diseases.