A decision-making support model for systemic vulnerability assessment in urbanized areas

Abstract

This paper aims to analyze the systemic vulnerability of a complex urban area when a combined flood-landslide event occurs. The proposed approach of vulnerability evaluation differs from traditional methods as it provides an analysis of “Systemic Vulnerability” measuring the relationship between extreme event magnitude and direct and indirect consequences of this event on the territorial system. GIS technology has been introduced for the proposed systemic vulnerability assessment because it allows implementation of the spatially and thematically distributed models used. The software also consents to the automated application of the method by creating a model that processes, analyzes and displays data in the form of maps. The model proposed was shown to be able to support the territorial planning and the appropriate management of an emergency due to natural catastrophes such as floods and landslides. The priority intervention elements can be defined as those which were more affected by systemic vulnerability making the system less flexible.