A decision support framework to incorporate textual data for early student dropout prediction in higher education

Abstract

Managing student dropout in higher education is critical, considering its substantial impacts on students' lives, academic institutions, and society as a whole. Using predictive modeling can be instrumental for this task, as a means to identify dropouts proactively on the basis of student characteristics and their academic performance. To enhance these predictions, textual student feedback also might be relevant; this article proposes a hybrid decision support framework that combines predictive modeling with student segmentation efforts. A real-life data set from a French higher education institution, containing information of 14,391 students and 62,545 feedback documents, confirms the superior performance of the proposed framework, in terms of the area under the curve and top decile lift, compared with various benchmarks. In contributing to decision support system research, this study (1) proposes a new framework for automatic, data-driven segmentation of students based on textual data; (2) compares multiple text representation methods and confirms that incorporating student textual feedback data improves the predictive performance of student dropout models; and (3) establishes useful insights to help decision-makers anticipate and manage student dropout behaviors.