Abstract
AbstractWe present a decision framework to identify when detailed population‐level assessments are required to understand the potential impacts of a disturbance‐inducing activity on a marine mammal population and discuss how the framework can be applied to other taxa. Species at high risk of population‐level effects can be identified using information on the number of individuals that are likely to be disturbed by the activity, total population size, the probability of repeated disturbance, the species' reproductive strategy, and the life stages (e.g., feeding, pregnant, and lactating) of the individuals most likely to be exposed. This hierarchical approach provides those responsible for conducting impact assessments with a time‐efficient, cost‐effective and reproducible workflow that allows them to prioritize their efforts and assign funds to those species with the most pressing conservation needs. A fully worked case study using marine mammals in the vicinity of a naval training activity is supplied.
Highlights
Disturbance, defined by Frid and Dill (2002) as a deviation in an animal's physiology or behavior from patterns occurring without predator or human influences, can affect wildlife population dynamics (Creel & Christianson, 2008)
In Supplementary Information (SI-Case study), we present a worked example based on the interactions between marine mammals and a U.S Navy training and testing activity
Wade (1998) used an RMAX value of 0.12 for pinnipeds and 0.04 for cetaceans. These values would give a set threshold for marine mammals between 0.02 and 0.06, which brackets the value we propose based on the Interim Population Consequences of Disturbance (iPCoD) simulations
Summary
Disturbance, defined by Frid and Dill (2002) as a deviation in an animal's physiology or behavior from patterns occurring without predator or human influences, can affect wildlife population dynamics (Creel & Christianson, 2008). IPCoD uses results from an expert elicitation described in Donovan et al (2016) to forecast the potential effects of different levels of disturbance on the individual vital rates of a number of marine mammal species. Computer code for conducting such simulations for marine mammals and other long-lived species, under the assumption that disturbed animals are not displaced from the affected area, is provided in Supplementary Information: SI-Sim R Code We recognize this will over-estimate the level of aggregate exposure for individuals that leave the affected area in response to disturbance. Are individuals in sensitive life stages likely to be present in the affected area?
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