A decision dependent stochastic process model for repairable systems with applications

Abstract

Management decisions regarding maintenance protocols critically hinge on the underlying probability distribution of the time between failures in most repairable systems. Replacement of the system with a new one resets the system age to zero, whereas a repair does not alter the system age but may shift the parameters of the failure-time distribution. Additionally, maintenance decisions lead to left-truncated observations, and right-censored observations. Thus, the underlying stochastic process governing a repairable system evolves based on the management decision taken.This paper mathematically formalizes the notion of how management actions impact the functioning of a repairable system over time by developing a new stochastic process model for such systems. The proposed model is illustrated using both simulated and real data. The proposed model compares favorably to other models for well-known data on Boeing airplanes. The model is further illustrated and compared to other models on failure time and maintenance data stemming from the South Texas Project nuclear power plant.