A decision analytic framework for environmental analysis and simulation modeling

Abstract

A decision analytic approach is proposed for environmental planning and analysis under scientific uncertainty. This approach begins with the creation of a planning framework that consists of all relevant objectives and attributes, along with all feasible management options; this planning framework defines the inputs and outputs for subsequent work. Decision analysis may then be used to guide the subsequent work, beginning with the selection of predictive models linking management options to objectives. Once these models are identified, decision analysis may again be used, this time to identify environmental research and monitoring priorities. The approach is illustrated with an example concerning the management of eutrophication in Lake Okeechobee, Florida. Objectives, attributes, and management options were identified for the planning framework, and a simulation model was selected for a management objective concerned with the reduction in algal blooms. This model could then be used with uncertainty analysis to define specific scientific research and monitoring needs. Finally, once scientific analysis is complete, decision analysis can be used as the framework for decision making.