A DCF analysis of market price for leasehold investments

Abstract

Advances an alternative method of analysing the market price of leasehold investments for use when assessing the market price of a comparable investment. The method can be adapted to evaluate investment worth by substituting rental growth forecasts for those implied by market price levels. Baum and Crosby highlighted the inadequacy of current dual rate valuation methods for leasehold investments and the problems associated with the contemporary approach. Their work is used as the basis for this article. A discounted cash flow (DCF) approach is developed using an analysis of target returns. The all risks yield (ARY) and target return are first assessed on the basis that the investment is freehold but otherwise identical. The implied annual growth rate in CRV is then calculated using the equated yield formula. It is then argued, that because this growth in CRV arises from the location and quality of the building, it is equally applicable to a leasehold interest in that building. This leaves only the target return for the leasehold interest to be established, for a DCF valuation to be possible. Market transactions in leasehold properties are analysed in terms of target return to illustrate how statistical evidence of market sentiment can be accumulated. This evidence is based on the “extra return” required for leasehold investments over comparable freeholds. It will be shown that this “extra return” requirement is not materially affected by the freehold target return initially selected in order to carry out the analysis. The method accordingly appears reliable.