A Data-Driven Optimization Approach for the Optimization of Shale Gas Supply Chains under Uncertainty

Abstract

This paper aims to leverage the big data in shale gas industry for better decision making in optimal design and operations of shale gas supply chains under uncertainty. We propose a two-stage distributionally robust optimization model, where uncertainties associated with both the upstream shale well estimated ultimate recovery and downstream market demand are simultaneously considered. In this model, decisions are classified into first-stage design decisions as well as second-stage operational decisions. A data-driven approach is applied to construct the ambiguity set based on principal component analysis and first-order deviation functions. By taking advantage of affine decision rules, a tractable mixed-integer linear programming formulation can be obtained. The applicability of the proposed modeling framework is demonstrated through a case study of Marcellus shale gas supply chain. Comparisons with deterministic optimization models are investigated as well.