Abstract
While full-physics fire models continue to be unsuitable for wildfire emergency situations, the so-called operational fire spread simulators are incapable of providing accurate estimations of the macroscopic fire behaviour while quickly reacting to a change of governing spread mechanisms. A promising approach to overcome these limitations are data-driven simulators, which assimilate observed data with the aim of improving their forecast with affordable computation times. Although preliminary results obtained by several data-driven simulators are promising, this scheme needs intensive validation. Detailed studies of the particular aspects related to data assimilation are essential to gain insight about the applicability of this approach to operational wildfire simulation. This paper presents the validation of the simulator presented in \citep{Rios2014a, Rios2016, Rios2018} with a large scenario of real complexity with intricate terrain. The study case corresponds to a wildfire of significant repercussions occurred in Catalonia in March 2014. We employed as reference data the event reconstruction performed by the Catalan Fire Service and validated with operational observations. Detailed information about fuel and meteorology was collected by the fire brigades and allowed reconstructing the fire development with Farsite, a widely employed simulator. Subsequently, our simulator was tested without a detailed description of the fuel and wind parameters, i.e. imitating its intended deployment conditions. It proved capable of automatically estimating them and correctly simulating the fire spread. Additionally, the effect of the assimilation window on the forecast accuracy was analysed. These results showed that the simulator is able to correctly handle complex terrain and wind situations to successfully deliver a short-term fire-front forecast in those real and complex scenarios.
Highlights
Wildfires are a global phenomenon that have a dramatic impact in terms of human lives, property, and environmental losses
We considered high-resolution simulated wind fields that interact with the fire spread according to the correction of Rothermel’s model proposed by André and Gonçalves (2013)
The difficulty to properly simulate the tail part of the fire may lie on the fact that backwards spread is not well-characterized yet
Summary
Wildfires are a global phenomenon that have a dramatic impact in terms of human lives, property, and environmental losses. They exhibit an increasing trend in both burned area and fire severity. Fire spread is determined by a number of physico-chemical phenomena intimately interconnected. The complex mathematical description of these underlying phenomena has prevented, so far, scientists from successfully modeling forest fire spread with acceptable computation resources and meaningful lead times. Simulators based on Computational Fluid Dynamics require hardware and computing times far beyond the current available capacity. Operational fire spread simulation is, at present, performed using semi-empirical models (e.g., Rothermel’s, 1972) that
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