A data-driven Bayesian network of management and organizational factors for human reliability analysis in the process industry

Abstract

According to historical statistical data, management and organizational factors (MOFs) contribute more to process accidents than technique factors. Under the umbrella of socio-tech system theory, human reliability analysis (HRA) has become a critical part of systemic probability risk analysis. In many HRA techniques, MOFs are among the performance shaping factors (PSFs). However, the interactions and causality of MOFs to human errors are still difficult to quantify and lack validation. To fill these gaps, a framework is proposed, considering data source selection, CBN construction algorithm comparison, and results validation. The case study employed the open access eMARS database as a data source. The optimized hybrid structure learning algorithm and Bayesian criteria parameter learning algorithm are employed to build a Causal Bayesian Network (CBN) of (MOFs) that lead to human error. The proposed kernel CBN is validated through prediction accuracy and sensitivity analysis. For theoretical contribution, the validated kernel BN could generally serve as the heart part of more specific CBNs as a basis for future works. For practical applications, an application shows the model's ability to quantify the contribution of MOFs to system reliability. The results show that human-machine interacting system reliability is most sensitive to organizational factors such as adequate training and procedures.