Abstract
BackgroundA significant mode shift will be required in order to meet the ambitious greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets in Germany and elsewhere. Such a mode shift can only be achieved by a combination of drastic push and pull measures. Getting commuters to switch modes might be particularly difficult and have a negative impact on their access to employment and welfare.MethodologyWe investigate the potential for a mode shift from car to public transport for German commuters using a data-driven approach based mainly on open data sources that avoids complex transport model runs. Different datasets on the home and workplace location of all employees in Germany are consolidated to create an origin-destination commuter matrix at traffic analysis zone level. The commuter matrix is merged with travel time data for car and public transport to calculate a spatially disaggregated and mode-specific measure of accessibility. The comparison of accessibility by car and public transport is used to derive the potential for a mode shift and identify potential challenges and barriers.ResultsPublic transport accessibility to workplaces is poorer across the country compared to access by car. On average, public transport travel times are almost three times higher than the corresponding car travel times. The differences in accessibility are largely independent of the region type. Results are validated by an independent dataset from a household travel survey. Based on these results, the potential for a mode shift appears to be very low.
Highlights
Commuting is an important segment of the transport market, both because of the relevance it has for the economy in a wider sense, and because of its sheer size
2.1 Overall approach The aim of this study is to evaluate the potential of a mode shift towards public transport for commuters in Germany using a data-driven approach based on the actual commuting relations and mode-specific travel times
3.1 Commuting patterns Before discussing travel time-based accessibility measures for car and public transport in Germany, it is reasonable to start with a brief look at the travel timeindependent structural context and commuting patterns
Summary
Commuting is an important segment of the transport market, both because of the relevance it has for the economy in a wider sense (enabling people to pursue economic activities), and because of its sheer size. Germany, like most other developed countries, has set very ambitious targets in terms of reducing greenhouse gas emissions to be in line with the Paris Agreement [26]. German transportrelated greenhouse gas emissions have been stagnating at around 160 million tons per year while the target for 2030 is 95 million tons per year [5]. A significant mode shift will be required in order to meet the ambitious greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets in Germany and elsewhere. Such a mode shift can only be achieved by a combination of drastic push and pull measures. Getting commuters to switch modes might be difficult and have a negative impact on their access to employment and welfare
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