A dasymetric method to spatially apportion tornado casualty counts

Abstract

ABSTRACTThis paper describes a dasymetric technique to spatially apportion casualty counts from tornado events in the US Storm Prediction Center's database. Apportionment is a calculation of the number of casualties within the area of the tornado damage path and with respect to the underlying population density. The method is illustrated with raster grids on tornadoes occurring between 1955 and 2016 within the most tornado-prone region of the United States. Results suggest a relatively uniform spatial distribution of tornado-induced casualties with slightly higher rates in the mid-south, particularly in northern Mississippi and Alabama, and also in many metropolitan areas. In addition, there is some degree of spatial variation over time, particularly clusters of high injury rates across the northern half of Alabama. Validation of the results at the county- and grid-level indicate that casualty numbers correlate strongly with the dasymetric estimates. Future work that includes socioeconomic variables (demographics, ethnicity, poverty and housing stock/value) might allow populations to be profiled with regards to vulnerability.