Abstract
The uncertain transportation environment makes travel’s mode choice decision-making behaviour become a complex and alterable process. Based on the cumulative prospect theory, this paper analysed the long-standing use of utility theory for the travel’s mode choice behaviour research. Car owner’s generalized cost includes the transport fare, travel time cost and penalty cost (early or delay); cumulative prospect theory was applied to describe the uncertain and risky prospect of car owner under congestion pricing policy. Through analysing two kinds of car owner’s generalized subjective perception costs on the four different transportation modes, including bus, subway, taxi and private car; we calculated the mode choice’s prospect value before and after the implementation of congestion pricing, and compared the difference of numerical example between cumulative prospect theory and expected utility theory. The results indicated that after the implementation of congestion pricing policy, the middle-level income car owner would prefer to choose taxi. Based on a state preference survey on travel’s mode choice behaviour, the survey results further validated our analysis. This paper for the first time adopted cumulative prospect theory to analyse travel’s mode choice behaviour after the implementation of congestion pricing policy, which can better explain car owner’s mode choice decisionmaking process under uncertain and risk condition. This study also can be helpful to many cities that wish to establish and implement the congestion pricing policy in practice.
Highlights
Most of road traffic congestions can be attributed to irrational pricing which sets the mode’s price much lower than its actual cost in urban transportation service
The results indicated that after the implementation of congestion pricing policy, the middle-level income car owner would prefer to choose taxi
This study can be helpful to many cities that wish to establish and implement the congestion pricing policy in practice
Summary
Most of road traffic congestions can be attributed to irrational pricing which sets the mode’s price much lower than its actual cost in urban transportation service. For the lack of analysis and research on the traveller’s decision-making behaviour under the uncertain environment, the expected utility theory can not explain travel’s mode choice behaviour change when facing time constraints or cost constraints (Hu et al 2011). This paper will adopt cumulative prospect theory to analyse car owner’s mode choice behaviour under the congestion pricing condition, with considering travellers’ attitude at risk condition as well as traveller’s learning characteristics during travel process. By investigating travellers’ decision-making behaviour under uncertainties conditions, we address an explanation regarding the travel’s mode choice behaviour changing process after the implementation of congestion pricing policy is drawn. This paper first adopts cumulative prospect theory to analysis car owner’s mode choice behaviour after the implementation of congestion pricing policy, which can better explain travel’s mode choice behaviour under uncertainty environment. We consider the travellers’ generalized cost and reference point selection to represent car owner’s mode choice behaviour process
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