A cumulative effects model for population trajectories of resident killer whales in the Northeast Pacific

Abstract

Like numerous species at risk, the resident killer whale populations of the Northeast Pacific are vulnerable to the cumulative effects of anthropogenic threats. A Pathways of Effects conceptual model summarised the current understanding of each threat (prey availability, acoustic and physical disturbance, and contaminants), threat interactions, and potential impacts to fecundity and mortality. A Population Viability Analysis utilised the most recent available data to quantify impacts of threats on population parameters. The impacts of individual and cumulative threat scenarios on modelled Southern and Northern Resident Killer Whale populations were compared to the observed population demographics to define a model that best captured the real world dynamics. Of the individual and combined threat models tested, the cumulative model incorporating all threats predicted demographic rates closest to those observed for both populations. Recent low Chinook salmon abundance and its interactions with vessel disturbance and contamination strongly influenced modelled killer whale population dynamics. The cumulative effects population viability analysis model projected a mean increase in the modelled Northern Resident Killer Whale population to the carrying capacity within 25 years. In contrast, the mean modelled Southern Resident Killer Whale population trajectory was projected to decline under current conditions, with a 26% probability of population extinction, and in those projections, extinction was estimated to occur after 86 (± 11) years. Our results highlight the importance of considering the collective impact of multiple threats to imperilled species and the necessity of testing management and mitigation measures aimed at recovery using a holistic, validated model.