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Abstract
China has accomplished itself as a great power in world manufacturing industry. However, China still has a long way to go compared with other advanced countries; and China does not have advantages in labor costs compared with some developing countries such as India and Vietnam. Therefore, the export trade of China, especially the export of manufacturing industry, is in face of an unprecedented crisis. And whether can we ensure the sustainability of export trade in manufacturing industry becomes particularly important. This paper, based on Survival Analysis, makes a study of the duration of export trade relationships of the top ten countries represented by China, America, and Germany in manufacturing sub-sectors from 1995 to 2015. We found that China can maintain a long time trade relationship in export trade of manufacturing. And we can know from the cross-countries comparison of median survival time and survival rate of manufacturing sub-sectors that China’s export trade in manufacturing performs differently in different sub-sectors. And we should ensure the sustainability of export trade in manufacturing while simultaneously extend different treatment to different manufacturing sub-sectors.
Highlights
Since the policy of reform and opening up, China’s manufacturing industry has scaled new highs and acquired the status as the great power in manufacturing and the world’s factory
China still has a long way to go compared with other advanced countries; and China does not have advantages in labor costs compared with some developing countries such as India and Vietnam
We found that China can maintain a long time trade relationship in export trade of manufacturing
Summary
Since the policy of reform and opening up, China’s manufacturing industry has scaled new highs and acquired the status as the great power in manufacturing and the world’s factory. In 2010, according to the price and exchange rate of that year, China’s manufacturing output accounted for 19.8% of the whole world, which ranked first surpassing America. The developing countries represented by India and Vietnam have an edge over China in labor costs From these two aspects, the export trade of China, especially the export of manufacturing industry, is facing an unprecedented crisis [2]. Ensuring the sustainability of export relies on build new trade relationships, and on stabilizing the existing trade relationships It will promote the sustainable development of exports if we conclude our country’s advantages (that the duration of trade relationships is longer) compared with the advanced countries in manufacturing and formulate corresponding favorable policy. Based on the existing research, we subdivide the export trade relations of the manufacturing industry. The last part is the conclusion and enlightenment of this paper
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