A cross-impact analysis of the bank payment card market parameters and non-financial sectors’ indicators in the Ukrainian economy

Abstract

In Ukraine, card payment systems develop at a rate similar to that of modern digital payment instruments in most European countries. The purpose of the paper is to establish interdependence and explain the nature of changing situations in the market of bank payment cards (BPC) taking into account the dynamics of economic development parameters in non-financial sectors of the Ukrainian economy. The methodology of the study includes graphic methods analyzing the dynamics of economic development indicators and a method for analyzing the cause-and-effect relationship between the studied parameters considered with different lags. Results showed that the most significant parameters for the development of the payment card infrastructure were the level of provision with POS terminals and the share of non-cash transactions. Their correlation with the economic development indicators reached 0.97. Up to the stage when the volume of non-cash payments by cards reached 5% of GDP, the impact of the BPC market on the change in the level of economic development had been insignificant according to the general idea. The development of the economy up to that point stimulated the development of the BPC market. Subsequently, the BPC market that was already sufficiently developed became one of the drivers aimed at the development of non-financial sectors of the Ukrainian economy after overcoming the 5% GDP level.