A Critique of the China Threat Theory: A Systematic Analysis

Abstract

Proponents of the theory argue that it is inconceivable for China to have a rise; a superpower China will inevitably be a threat to the United States. This article analyzes the military and economic aspects of the theory from theoretical, methodological, and points of view. theory's flaws are in its assumptions, which this article tackles by providing counter examples as well as by highlighting external and internal problems facing China that can complicate its rise to great-power status. In addition, the theory is based on linear projection and imperfect historical analogies that are as misleading conceptually as they are strategically counterproductive to Sino-American relations. This, of course, is not to argue that China poses no threat; it is, however, to suggest that the nature of any threat is far more nuanced than the theorists claim it to be. Key words: East Asian Security, U.S.-China relations Introduction China's rise has been viewed with uncertainty and anxiousness in the West. Its rapid economic growth, military modernization, and in recent years a surge in energy demand have made many in the United States talk about a threat. Policy makers, thinkers, academics, and pundits have started exploring strategies of containing China, and rejecting the concept of peaceful rise.1 There are many reasons for such fears. Robert Kagan, for example, has used history to argue that China's rise will not be peaceful. He has asserted: The history of rising powers . . . and their attempted 'management' by established powers provides little reason for confidence or comfort. Rarely have rising powers risen without sparking a major war that reshaped the international system to reflect new realities of power.2 Others have expressed the threat from a rising China in starker terms. Bill Gertz, for example, has argued that The People's Republic of China is the most serious national security threat the United States faces at present and will remain so into the foreseeable future . . . reason Americans should take the threat from China so seriously is that it puts at risk the very national existence of the United States.3 U.S. government has been more nuanced and reserved about the perceived threat from China, but it has also sounded the alarms. 2006 Quadrennial Defense Review Report, for example, asserted that has the greatest potential to compete militarily with the United States and field disruptive military technologies that could over time offset traditional U.S. military advantages.4 Of course, different administrations have had different attitudes toward the threat. President George W. Bush's administration, however, made it clear that-unlike the Clinton administration- it saw China as a competitor. following quote from Condoleezza Rice-then a foreign policy adviser to then-Governor George W. Bush-is telling. Arguing against the Clinton administration's policy of engagement of China, Rice wrote: Even if there is an argument for economic interaction with Beijing, China is still a potential threat to stability in the Asia-Pacific region. Its military power is currently no match for that of the United States. But that condition is not necessarily permanent. What we do know is that China is a great power with unresolved vital interests, particularly concerning Taiwan and the South China Sea. China resents the role of the United States in the Asia- Pacific region. This means that China is not a status quo power but one that would like to alter Asia's balance of power in its own favor. That alone makes it a competitor, not the strategic partner the Clinton administration once called it. Add to this China's record of cooperation with Iran and Pakistan in the proliferation of ballistic-missile technology, and the security problem is obvious. …