Abstract
Lignocellulosic biomass from marginal land is needed for a social–ecologically sustainable bioeconomy transition. However, how much biomass can be expected? This study addresses this question by reviewing the limitations of current biomass yield modeling for lignocellulosic crops on marginal land and deriving recommendations to overcome these limitations. It was found that on the input side of biomass yield models, geographically limited research and the lack of universally understood definitions impose challenges on data collection. The unrecognized complexity of marginal land, the use of generic crop growth models together with data from small-scale field trials and limited resolution further reduce the comparability of modeling results. On the output side of yield models, the resistance of modeled yields to future variations is highly limited by the missing incorporation of the risk of land use changes and climatic change. Moreover, several limitations come with the translation of modeled yields into bioenergy yields: the non-specification of conversion factors, a lack of conversion capacities, feedstock yield–quality tradeoffs, as well as slow progress in breeding and the difficulty of sustainability criteria integration into models. Intensified political support and enhancement of research on a broad range of issues might increase the consistency of future yield modeling.
Highlights
Global agriculture in the 21st century is facing a multitude of challenges, especially the drastically growing demand for food, fodder and industrial biomass for an increasing population [1]
Most studies assessed in this review focus on a select few regions/countries, mainly China, Germany, Greece, Italy, Sweden and the United States, where the cultivation potential of the most common perennial crops including Miscanthus, switchgrass, poplar and willow is assessed
The modeled yields are further transformed into bioenergy potentials, representing tangible energy contributions of lignocellulosic crops
Summary
Global agriculture in the 21st century is facing a multitude of challenges, especially the drastically growing demand for food, fodder and industrial biomass for an increasing population [1]. The cultivation of annual and perennial lignocellulosic crops on marginal land might allow an expanded production of bioenergy without endangering food security [10]. Lignocellulosic biomass can be cultivated on soils of different quality, while providing a remarkably high biomass output This is one of the reasons for the increasing political support for the conversion of lignocellulosic feedstock to bioenergy: for instance, in the United Kingdom, double Renewable Transport Fuel Certificates are granted for lignocellulosic biofuels [11]. The growing political and economic interest in lignocellulosic feedstock cultivation on marginal land necessitates precise biomass and bioenergy yield estimations and forecasts. This review only considers low- and medium-input cultivation practices on marginal land [13] and excludes high-input cropping systems. From a biochemical point of view, lignocellulosic crops can be distinguished by lignin and nutrient content; higher in lignin but lower in nutrients is woody biomass, mostly low in lignin and showing a higher nutrient content is associated with herbaceous biomass (mostly grasses) [26]
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