Abstract
We present a less common type of discussion about COVID-19 data, beginning with the observation that the number of people reported deceased following COVID-19 infection is currently the most reliable dataset to be used. When the available real-life data are visualized for a number of European countries, they reveal the commonly seen exponential increase, though with different absolute rates, and over time different periods. More interesting information is obtained upon inspection of the daily increments in deaths. These curves look very similar to those for China, and seem to indicate that in European countries that have imposed more strict human–human contact measures, in particular Italy and Spain, where we have seen a decrease in daily deaths since early April, it is to be expected it will take 40–50 days from the end of March until this number has fallen to negligible levels. Taking the initial increase in the number of deaths for Germany, and combining this with typical values for the mortality reported in the literature and the published number of daily contacts for the working population, we calculated an initial increase in infections of 20 per day by a single infected person with an average human–human contact number of 22, decreasing to 5.5 after the first 10 days. The high number at the outset is likely related to outbreaks in a high local concentration of people.
Highlights
Since the beginning of 2020, we have witnessed the pandemic caused by coronavirus-19 (CoV-19 or SARS-CoV-2), a virus structurally related to the SARS virus.The coronavirus can cause acute respiratory diseases (COVID-19) and it has been reported that its spreads 0.8%–3.0% more than normal influenza [1]
Taking the initial increase in the number of deaths for Germany, and combining this with typical values for the mortality reported in the literature and the published number of daily contacts for the working population, we calculated an initial increase in infections of 20 per day by a single infected person with an average human–human contact number of 22, decreasing to 5.5 after the first 10 days
For countries/regions in which a strict no human–human contact policy was imposed at an early stage, behavior over time resembles that in China, where infection has essentially fallen to nil after 60–70 days, from a peak at around 25 days
Summary
Since the beginning of 2020, we have witnessed the pandemic caused by coronavirus-19 (CoV-19 or SARS-CoV-2), a virus structurally related to the SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) virus. The coronavirus can cause acute respiratory diseases (COVID-19) and it has been reported that its spreads 0.8%–3.0% more than normal influenza [1]. In addition to papers on the mechanism of the action of viruses including CoV-2-SARS, the recent CoV-2-SARS pandemic has obviously led to a large number of publications by public health organizations, including the WHO, and magazines and newspapers reporting the number of people who tested positive for the COVID-19 virus, the number of people deceased, and, for many Sci. 2020, 10, 3398 not all) countries, the number of people who have recovered Both the press and official institutions in different countries have issued daily statements on the situation regarding the spread of the coronavirus. We look at the time-evolution of real data reported far, using the number of deaths, which, as we will argue, constitutes the more reliable data set
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