A creep life prediction model of P91 steel coupled with back-propagation artificial neural network (BP-ANN) and θ projection method

Abstract

In order to predict the long-term creep life of P91 steel, this work proposed a coupled model, combining the error-trained back-propagation artificial neural network (BP-ANN) and an improved θ model. Both the short-term rupture life obtained by creep experiments and the related creep data of National Institute for Materials Science (NIMS) database were used to validate the above model. In this model, creep parameters (temperature, stress) were used as the input and relative error of 5 θ model extrapolations as the output. Then, the prediction errors of BP-ANN method were introduced to correct the 5 θ model extrapolation results to achieve a more accurate prediction. Consequently, the long-term creep life of P91 steel was predicted. It demonstrated that with the proposed model, the prediction capability for long-term creep life of P91 steel with 200,000 h is much better than those of other θ methods, which has a prediction uncertainty less than 5%.