Abstract
Global trends in the development and use of electricity utilities and assets are practically irreversible. In industrialized nations, capacity factors have grown so large that users may expect freely available electrical potential energy at all times and in almost all locations. Economically capitalizing on this trend means maximizing energy provision and use to boost gross domestic product growth rates. Electricity is now a basic indicator of social development; it is to the cultural-technological dimension what breathing air is to the physiological-biological dimension, the implication being that sustainable development of provision systems has become a matter of international concern.This article presents a decision basis for the design of sustainable national electrical energy supply systems, incorporating country-specific boundary conditions in the form of user requirements to be specified by users. The basis is a solution space of technologically possible systems, obtained by combining generalized user requirements and physical limitations to generate the solution states. As all technological options for the system are brought under consideration, this approach represents a comprehensive comparative analysis.The decision process ensues by assigning to each solution state a set of (newly defined) system risk factors. Particular consideration is given to evaluating the system’s ability to meet the user requirements, i.e., interruption-free provision. The central benchmark is the technological-economic availability. From this is obtained a sustainability boundary, the boundary between quantifiable and unquantifiable economic loss potentials.This article deliberately avoids referencing specific technological solutions, with the justification that the basis of the user’s decision should be independent of technological considerations. The sole exception is a reference to the currently used technology, which forms the starting point.
Highlights
Each system can be decomposed into the structure of the power stations and of the accompanying grid network
Though the current technology has unquestionably contributed to economic prosperity, it carries a dominant, unquantifiable systemic risk, i.e., of blackouts
Two of the state variables, the numbers of parallel-connected microcells and of equivalent current sources, are functionally dependent, so for constant jÃ0 and kÃ0, cellular variety is possible across the n0 technological macrocells
Summary
Existing systems of national electrical energy supply use essentially similar technologies. Two of the state variables, the numbers of parallel-connected microcells and of equivalent current sources, are functionally dependent, so for constant jÃ0 and kÃ0, cellular variety is possible across the n0 technological macrocells. This manifests as additional state vectors, so-called fine structure vectors. Key point 12: Introduction of base modules Key point 13: Definition of a power grid structure and associated grid spectra Key point 14: Reduction of national EESS to state vectors and their solution set Substantial systemic risk Assessing the systemic risk of similar technologies sometimes reveals significant variation. Central to this assessment is a substantial system risk with two subcategories: 1. Sudden change from normal operating state to a system OFF state
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