A coupled model for government communication and rumor spreading in emergencies

Jiuping Xu,Jingneng Ni,Mengxiang Zhang

doi:10.1186/s13662-016-0932-1

Jiuping Xu, Jingneng Ni + Show 1 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1186/s13662-016-0932-1

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Abstract

The dissemination of official messages and the spreading of rumors are both key factors in emergency situations. In this paper, a coupled model is established to describe the interaction between official government communiques and the spreading of rumors during emergencies. The mathematical property of the proposed model is discussed, and the results showed that the official message diffusion has positive effects on thwarting rumor spreading. Three different scenarios for population behavior evolution are identified according to the degree of government involvement. The results shed new light to comprehend information dissemination in emergencies and provide some hint on how to limit the spreading of rumor within populations after emergency occur.

Highlights

Information dissemination is one of the key factors in the evolution of emergency incidents
The objectives of this study are: ( ) to extend classical models of spreading epidemics to describe the coupling mechanism for government communication and rumor spreading in an emergency; ( ) to use mathematical analyses to discuss a series of key factors in interaction between the two kinds of information diffusion; and ( ) to investigate the evolution of population behavior under different degrees of government involvement
Based on the results of this analysis, three different scenarios for our model are proposed to interpret the coupled effect of government communication and rumor spreading in emergencies according to different degrees of government involvement

Summary

Introduction

Information dissemination is one of the key factors in the evolution of emergency incidents. These rumors have been shown to have a negative influence on people’s lives, leading to possible financial loss, feelings of panic, and irrational behavior [ ]. Such negativity from unsubstantiated rumors can develop into extreme public reactions and cause panic during emergencies [ ]. The rapid dissemination of government information, is an effective and essential measure to combat the spread of false rumors and to guide public opinion. From this analysis it can be seen that in emergency management there exists a coupling mechanism between official government information dissemination and the spreading of rumors, both of which impact the

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