Abstract
To capture the interactions between hydrologic and economic systems necessary for modeling water quality at a sufficient level of spatial detail, we have designed a modular framework that couples an economic model with a watershed model. To represent the economic system, the Rectangular Choice-of-Technology (RCOT) model was used because it represents both the physical and monetary aspects of economic activities and, unlike traditional input-output or general equilibrium models, it can optimize choices among operational technologies in addition to the amount and location of production. For the first implementation of this modeling framework, RCOT is coupled with a watershed model, Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF), which was calibrated to represent Cedar Run Watershed in northern Virginia. This framework was used to analyze eight scenarios related to the expansion of agricultural activity in Fauquier County. The database for RCOT used county-level input-output data representative of the region in 2012. Thus, when crop farming was expanded to fully utilize the farmland available in the watershed, the nitrogen concentration at the outflow of the watershed increased from 0.6 to 4.3 mg/L. However, when RCOT could select between a standard and a more nitrogen-efficient management practice, the outflow nitrogen concentration only increased to 2.6 mg/L because RCOT selected the more resource-efficient practice. Building on this modular framework, future work will involve designing more realistic scenarios that can test policy options and regional planning decisions in a wide range of watersheds.
Highlights
The engineering and economic disciplines have historically maintained an association since economic costs and benefits are important concerns when designing, building, and maintaining infrastructure
When crop farming was expanded in S1, S3, S5, and S7, the acres of cropland increased by 270% regardless of the configuration of the economic model
When animal husbandry was expanded in S2, S4, S6, and S8, the acres of pasture increased by 220% regardless of the configuration of the economic model
Summary
The engineering and economic disciplines have historically maintained an association since economic costs and benefits are important concerns when designing, building, and maintaining infrastructure. While water must be utilized for economic purposes, the impact of economic use on water quantity and quality must be simultaneously considered (Brouwer and Hofkes, 2008). Hydrologic models are typically based on theories or empirical relationships among variables while economic models often use statistical inference to establish relationships among variables (McKitrick, 1998; Brouwer and Hofkes, 2008). These challenges can be addressed differently depending on the modeling approach being utilized and the application of the modeling framework. Each approach is examined in more detail in the following sub-sections
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