A coupled hierarchical modeling approach to simulating the geomorphic response of river systems to anthropogenic climate change

Abstract

AbstractAnthropogenic climate change is expected to change the discharge and sediment transport regime of river systems. Because rivers adjust their channels to accommodate their typical inputs of water and sediment, changes in these variables can potentially alter river morphology. In this study, a hierarchical modeling approach was developed and applied to examine potential changes in reach‐averaged bedload transport and spatial patterns of erosion and deposition for three snowmelt‐dominated gravel‐bed rivers in the interior Pacific Northwest. The modeling hierarchy was based on discharge and suspended‐sediment load from a basin‐scale hydrologic model driven by a range of downscaled climate‐change scenarios. In the field, channel morphology and sediment grain‐size data for all three rivers were collected. Changes in reach‐averaged bedload transport were estimated using the Bedload Assessment of Gravel‐bedded Streams (BAGS) software, and the Cellular Automaton Evolutionary Slope and River (CAESAR) model was used to simulate the spatial pattern of erosion and deposition within each reach to infer potential changes in channel geometry and planform. The duration of critical discharge was found to control bedload transport. Changes in channel geometry were simulated for the two higher‐energy river reaches, but no significant morphological changes were found for a lower‐energy reach with steep, cohesive banks. Changes in sediment transport and river morphology resulting from climate change could affect the management of river systems for human and ecological uses. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.