A coupled dynamical-copula downscaling approach for temperature projections over the Canadian Prairies

Abstract

In this study, a coupled dynamical-copula downscaling approach was developed through integrating the Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS) modeling system and the copula method. This approach helps to reflect detailed features at local scales based on dynamical downscaling, while also effectively simulating the interactions between large-scale atmospheric variables (predictors) and local surface variables (predictands). The performance of the proposed approach in reproducing historical climatology of the Canadian Prairies was evaluated through comparison with observations. Future climate projections generated by the developed approach were analyzed over three time slices (i.e., the 2030s, 2050s, and 2080s) to help understand the plausible changes in temperature over the Canadian Prairies in response to global warming. The results showed that there would be an apparent increasing pattern over the Canadian Prairies. The projections of future temperature over three time slices can provide decision makers with valuable information for climate change impacts assessment over the Canadian Prairies.