Abstract
Abstract This paper describes the use of a county-level approximation of the grid cells of a general circulation model as an approach to using environmental and resource data in analyzing the effects of climate change. As a demonstration, the effects are estimated of a possible climate change due to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 on the production of soybeans using two simple approaches based on grid cell averages of county-level yield data. With the first approach, we assume that the future yields will be determined by current climate-yield relationships. The actual 1978 climate (approximate growing-degree days and precipitation in the growing season) corresponding to 1978 yield levels is calculated. The climate characteristics of grid cells with major (grid cell-averaged yield of 56.9–299.3 kg/ha) and minor (1.6–11.6 kg/ha) soybean yield are estimated. Potential future major and minor yields are then estimated from a simulated changed climate. With the second approach, future yields are estimated using a...
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