Abstract
Decarbonizing heavy-duty vehicles is becoming increasingly important, yet multiple renewable-based decarbonization pathways have not been compared systematically. To fill this gap, this study develops a techno-economic and environmental model that integrates the fuel cycle and vehicle cycle to assess these pathways for China. The model includes two energy storage technologies: batteries and hydrogen, three energy transmission options, and two vehicle types: fuel cell electric vehicles and battery electric vehicles. Five distinct low-carbon pathways are evaluated on a ton-kilometer basis, including cost, greenhouse gas emissions, and abatement cost relative to conventional diesel trucks. Results indicate that the most cost-effective battery electric vehicle pathway offers a 7 % lower ton-km cost than diesel trucks for a 49-ton gross vehicle weight. Battery electric vehicle charging combined with hydrogen for power generation is more cost-effective than direct use of hydrogen in fuel cell electric vehicles. All studied pathways can achieve over 80 % emission reduction compared to diesel trucks, with fuel cell electric vehicle pathways having the highest abatement costs of 103–117 USD/tonCO2. Analysis of the impact of gross vehicle weight and vehicle range indicates that battery electric vehicle pathways outperform fuel cell electric vehicle pathways across most dimensions. Costs of battery electric vehicle pathways do increase sharply for vehicle ranges beyond about 700 km, and fuel cell electric vehicles become more cost-effective relative to battery electric vehicles for ranges above approximately 1100 km, although all pathways are much more costly than diesel trucks at long ranges. The sensitivity analysis highlights the importance of powertrain efficiency and cost projections show that fuel cell electric heavy-duty vehicles can achieve cost-parity before 2030. These results highlight the desirability of promoting the adoption of heavier battery electric vehicles and providing more targeted subsidies for long-range fuel cell electric vehicles.
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