A cost-effective, decision-making model for building fire safety and protection

Abstract

A brief description is given of a series of stochastic, state-transition models, and interrelated deterministic models that were developed to represent the dynamic interaction between human behaviour and fire growth. Results obtained from the models are also given. The models were integrated into a system model that is used to calculate the effects of smoke and flame spread in multi-storey, multi-compartment office buildings. The effects of fire spread are calculated in terms of two performance parameters; namely the fire-cost expectation and the expected risk to life. These performance parameters permit a quantitative appraisal to be undertaken of the cost-effectiveness of the provision of fire safety and property protection in buildings. A number of unique models were developed and are described in the paper. In particular, the development and quantification of the expected risk-to-life parameter provides a rational basis for assessing the effectiveness of the provision of active and passive protection design strategies in buildings. The results from the system model can be used to appraise the cost-effectiveness of both existing building code provisions and possible alternative design strategies.