Abstract

Development of new advanced manufacturing technology for the aerospace industry is critical to enhance the manufacture and assembly of aerospace products. This article presents, verifies and validates a cost–benefit forecasting framework for the initial stages of advanced manufacturing technology development. The framework improves the decision-making process of which potential advanced manufacturing technologies to select and develop from concept to full-scale demonstration. Cost is the first element and is capable of forecasting the advanced manufacturing technology development effort in person-hours and cost of hardware using two parametric cost models. Benefit is the second element and forecasts the advanced manufacturing technology tangible and intangible performance. The proposed framework plots these quantified cost–benefit parameters to present development value advice for a diverse range of advanced manufacturing technologies. A detailed case study evaluating a total of 23 novel aerospace advanced manufacturing technologies verifies the capability and high accuracy of the framework within a large aerospace manufacturing organisation. Further validation is provided by quantifying the responses from 10 advanced manufacturing technology development experts, after utilising the methodology within an industrial setting. The case study demonstrates that quantifying the cost-benefit parameters provides the ability to select advanced manufacturing technologies that generate the best value to a business.

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