Abstract
Several new varieties of airbags are under consideration for development. However, their commercialization decision must be backed by a positive Cost–Benefit Analysis (CBA) outcome. In this study, we propose a CBA framework for the frontal center curtain airbag, a newly designed safety system intended to reduce the injury risk of rear-seat passengers. The proposed CBA covers not only economic benefits of the producer but also the effectiveness in sustainable reduction of the fatal and injury rate. In this context, with accumulated field data on road traffic accidents, a forecasting method reflecting the reduced casualties and the market share of vehicle sales associated with frontal center curtain airbag is utilized. Our results suggest that the use of frontal center curtain airbags helps to reduce the number of casualties with a Maximum Abbreviated Injury Scale (MAIS) of 3 or above by 87.4%. Furthermore, both the initial market penetration rate and price of the frontal center curtain airbag significantly influence its socioeconomic benefits. By evaluating the effectiveness of the frontal center curtain airbag, our study can contribute to the decision making for its commercialization.
Highlights
The launch of a new type of safety system in a market requires the estimation of its socioeconomic effects, which is necessary for the sustainable management of technology [1,2,3]
The application of the established Cost–Benefit Analysis (CBA) framework is limited for a new safety system that has not been installed in a fleet
This study proposes a CBA framework with a forecasting model for a newly-developed safety system that has not been launched in the market yet
Summary
The launch of a new type of safety system in a market requires the estimation of its socioeconomic effects, which is necessary for the sustainable management of technology [1,2,3] In this context, some previous works developed the Cost–Benefit Analysis (CBA) framework, which has generally been used to assess the effectiveness of safety systems quantitatively. Similar to COWI [11], ASSESS [14] estimated the effectiveness of pre-crash safety systems across European countries with reflecting each nation’s GDP per capita to consider economic wealth of the countries. The sensitivity analysis results suggest that the benefits range from 5.6 to 23.1 million Euros In this context, a CBA framework should include sensitivity analysis with a range of parameters for estimating the effectiveness of new systems/technologies and forecasting the number of potential beneficiaries
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