A cost/benefit analysis of commercial fusion-fission hybrid reactor development

Abstract

A simple algorithm was developed that allows rapid computation of the ratio,R, of present worth of benefits to present worth of hybrid R&D program costs as a function of potential hybrid unit electricity cost savings, discount rate, electricity demand growth rate, total hybrid R&D program cost, and time to complete a demonstration reactor. In the sensitivity study, these variables were assigned nominal values (unit electricity cost savings of 4 mills/kW-hr, discount rate of 4%/year, growth rate of 2.25%/year, total R&D program cost of $20 billion, and time to complete a demonstration reactor of 30 years), and the variable of interest was varied about its nominal value. Results show thatR increases with decreasing discount rate and increasing unit electricity savings and ranges from 4 to 94 as discount rate ranges from 5 to 3%/year and unit electricity savings range from 2 to 6 mills/kW-hr.R increases with increasing growth rate and ranges from 3 to 187 as growth rate ranges from 1 to 3.5%/year and unit electricity cost savings range from 2 to 6 mills/kW-hr.R attains a maximum value when plotted against time to complete a demonstration reactor. The location of this maximum value occurs at shorter completion times as discount rate increases, and this optimal completion time ranges from 20 years for a discount rate of 4%/year to 45 years for a discount rate of 3%/year.