A Correlation Study between Dengue Incidence and Climatological Factors in the Philippines

Abstract

Dengue is a viral mosquito-borne infection transmitted primarily by the Aedes mosquitoes. It is one of the several emerging tropical diseases which progressively spread geographically to virtually all tropical countries like the Philippines. Recent climate changes related to global warming have increased the potential risk of dengue outbreaks in the world. In this paper, we study and investigate temperature and precipitation as climatological factors affecting dengue incidence in the Philippines from the year 2015 to 2018. Monthly dengue cases and climate data were gathered for the said study period. A correlation and wavelet coherence analyses were performed to determine a relationship between dengue incidence and climatological factors in the Philippines. Results show that the amount of rainfall is strongly correlated to the increase of dengue cases in the country as compared to the temperature. Evidence shows that dengue incidence in the Philippines mostly occur during the rainy season. Thus, intensified surveillance and control of mosquitoes during the rainy season are recommended.