A correction method for the estimation of accident in different types of urban intersections

Abstract

The main goal of this article is to present a method for estimating accidents in all types of level crossings in the city by using a type of statistical model. This study was conducted on 140 3-line and 4-line level intersections, both with and without traffic lights, in Tehran, whose accident information was collected in a period of three years (2019–2021) from police accident system reports and other required data. The data has been collected by field methods. To build the required model, the multiplicative form of the Riha equation, which is a comprehensive equation for predicting traffic accidents, has been used. In this equation, descriptive variables are selected in two continuous and binary forms, which are pre-determined by a functional form. They are obtained using the integral-differential method and are introduced to the mentioned equation. The results showed that in urban level intersections, the volume of traffic entering the intersection has the greatest effect on the amount of accidents, and for a certain volume of traffic, the effects of the geometric shape of the intersection (3-lane and 4-lane) and the type of traffic control (with or without lights) in the amount accidents are insignificant and negligible. According to the obtained results, the level of traffic safety can be significantly increased by controlling the volume of traffic entering intersections.