A copula incorporated cellular automata module for modeling the spatial distribution of oasis recovered by ecological water diversion: An application to the Qingtu Oasis in Shiyang River basin, China

Abstract

Assessing the impact of ecological water diversion on oasis restoration is critical for water resources and environmental management in arid inland basins. This study proposed a copula incorporated cellular automata (CA) module for modeling the oasis’s spatial distribution driven by ecological water diversion. Given the effects of groundwater depth and community expansion on oasis evolution, a water availability index and a neighbor vegetation index were proposed. These two indices were joint using the Clayton copula function, producing a vegetation suitability index that quantified vegetation growth’s habitat quality and provided the CA module’s basis to identify cellular categories. The CA module was integrated into a previously developed conceptual lumped ecohydrological model (CLEM), resulting in an improved CA-CLEM that outputted groundwater depth, oasis area, oasis NDVI, and oasis distribution data. The CLEM provided the oasis area changes for the CA module, which specified the spatial distribution of these changes. The CA-CLEM had a simple structure, low computation cost, and good performance, indicated by the application in the Shiyang River basin in Northwest China. Results show that an ecological water diversion of 30 million m3, with an average groundwater depth of 2.95 m, an oasis area of 25 km2, and an oasis NDVI of 0.36, would successfully recover the terminal Qingtu Oasis in 2020. The oasis distribution and its dynamic evolution processes were irregular because of the spatial heterogeneity of vegetation habitat suitability. The present Qingtu Oasis was fragile, and its sustainability relied on ecological water diversion. The reduction in water diversion would cause water table decline, oasis area shrinkage, vegetation degradation, and oasis fragmentation. The CA-CLEM combined with scenario analysis provides practical and reliable implications for managers and policymakers to improve ecological water diversion strategies.