Abstract
As the rapid growth of photovoltaic (PV) generation capacity, the form of regional PV power integrated by multiple PV plants is becoming more and more common. The changing law of regional PV power is of great significance to control the operation of the power system. This paper presents a novel regional PV power point forecast method that uses the convolutional neural network (CNN) model. In the method, the structure of CNN is applied to extract the nonlinear features between the input data and regional PV power. The forecast of regional PV power in a real power grid is carried out to illustrate the validity of the proposed method. Verification results show that the CNN model can provide more accurate point forecast for regional PV power results than the traditional regional PV power forecast methods.
Highlights
In recent years, with the aggravation of global energy consumption and the shortage of fossil energy supply, renewable energy utilization technology has developed rapidly
In order to further illustrate the effectiveness of the convolutional neural network (CNN) model of regional PV power forecast, the proposed method is compared with the regional PV power point forecast methods, which includes the bottom-up method and upscaling method
It can be seen from table 1 that the evaluation criteria mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE) of point forecast results of regional PV power based on the CNN model are far less than the bottom-up and upscaling methods
Summary
With the aggravation of global energy consumption and the shortage of fossil energy supply, renewable energy utilization technology has developed rapidly. The input data involved in the power forecast of regional PV plants is large-scale, which includes the numerical weather prediction (NWP) and output power of each PV plant in the region. The key of regional PV power forecast is to efficiently mine effective information from high-dimensional and complex input data [3, 4]. (1) The CNN model is used to forecast the regional PV power. (2) The CNN model is used to forecast the regional PV power generated by ten PV plants in Weifang region of Shandong Province in China. The point forecast method of regional PV power based on the CNN model is compared with the traditional regional PV power forecast methods which includes the bottom-up and upscaling methods.
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