Abstract

PM2.5 concentration predictions can provide air pollution control, management, and early warning. However, the PM2.5 data with high-dimensionality, complexity, and dynamics pose a great challenge to achieve optimal prediction results. Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) has unique advantages in processing complex data and contributes to state-of-the-art performances. However, designing the architecture and selecting the learning rate for CNN are time-consuming and requires prior knowledge. Evolutionary algorithms, with the advantages of global convergence, ergodicity, robustness and adaptability, are the most commonly used methods to design the optimal framework for CNNs. Therefore, to improve the predictive performance of CNNs, this paper proposes an improved CNN method (EBRO-ICNN) which employs the enhanced battle royale optimization (EBRO) algorithm and proportional-derivative (PD) control. Firstly, the EBRO algorithm with multistrategy collaborative optimization is introduced, and validated by CEC2017 benchmark functions, which demonstrates EBRO strong global exploration capability, fast convergence speed, and low time complexity. Next, PD control is applied to adjust the learning rate of CNN (ICNN) dynamically, which improves the efficiency and stability of the network training process. At the same time, the ICNN model is optimized using the EBRO algorithm, which can reduce the human interference, generate the optimal framework automatically and enhance the prediction accuracy effectively. Finally, a private air quality dataset and two public datasets are utilized to evaluate the performance of the EBRO-ICNN model, considering 3 error evaluation metrics and 7 prediction comparison models. The experimental results demonstrate that the EBRO-ICNN model exhibits great accuracy and stability.

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