A convenient machine learning model to predict full stomach and evaluate the safety and comfort improvements of preoperative oral carbohydrate in patients undergoing elective painless gastrointestinal endoscopy

Abstract

Background and aims Assessment of the patient’s gastric contents is the key to avoiding aspiration incidents, however, there is no effective method to determine whether elective painless gastrointestinal endoscopy (GIE) patients have a full stomach or an empty stomach. And previous studies have shown that preoperative oral carbohydrates (POCs) can improve the discomfort induced by fasting, but there are different perspectives on their safety. This study aimed to develop a convenient, accurate machine learning (ML) model to predict full stomach. And based on the model outcomes, evaluate the safety and comfort improvements of POCs in empty- and full stomach groups. Methods We enrolled 1386 painless GIE patients between October 2022 and January 2023 in Nanjing First Hospital, and 1090 patients without POCs were used to construct five different ML models to identify full stomach. The metrics of discrimination and calibration validated the robustness of the models. For the best-performance model, we further interpreted it through SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) and constructed a web calculator to facilitate clinical use. We evaluated the safety and comfort improvements of POCs by propensity score matching (PSM) in the two groups, respectively. Results Random Forest (RF) model showed the greatest discrimination with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) 0.837 [95% confidence interval (CI): 79.1–88.2], F1 71.5%, and best calibration with a Brier score of 15.2%. The web calculator can be visited at https://medication.shinyapps.io/RF_model/. PSM results demonstrated that POCs significantly reduced the full stomach incident in empty stomach group (p < 0.05), but no differences in full stomach group (p > 0.05). Comfort improved in both groups and was more significant in empty stomach group. Conclusions The developed convenient RF model predicted full stomach with high accuracy and interpretability. POCs were safe and comfortably improved in both groups, with more benefit in empty stomach group. These findings may guide the patients’ gastrointestinal preparation.