A continuous-time model of departure time choice for urban shopping trips

Abstract

This paper proposes a continuous-time hazard duration model for urban shopping trip departure time choice. The time frame for the analysis of departure time is the entire day. The continuous-time model uses a non-parametric baseline hazard distribution, employs a non-parametric representation for the time-varying effect of covariates, and accommodates time-varying covariates. These econometric issues are important to recognize and consider in a departure time model spanning the entire day. The model also accommodates unobserved heterogeneity and recognizes the “rounding” of reported departure times by individuals in surveys to an integral multiple of 5 min. The continuous-time model is estimated using shopping trip data from the 1996 activity survey collected in the Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan area. The effects of individual and household socio-demographics, employment attributes, and trip-related characteristics on departure time choice are presented and discussed. Application of the continuous-time model to forecast temporal shifts in shopping trip-making due to changes in socio-demographic characteristics and trip-chaining behavior is demonstrated. The use of the formulation as a powerful evaluation tool to manage and influence traffic patterns through dynamic congestion pricing control schemes is also highlighted.