A continuous time meta-analysis of the relationship between conspiracy beliefs and individual preventive behavior during the COVID-19 pandemic

Abstract

In several longitudinal studies, reduced willingness to show COVID-19-related preventive behavior (e.g., wearing masks, social distancing) has been partially attributed to misinformation and conspiracy beliefs. However, there is considerable uncertainty with respect to the strength of the relationship and whether the negative relationship exists in both directions (reciprocal effects). One explanation of the heterogeneity pertains to the fact that the time interval between consecutive measurement occasions varies (e.g., 1 month, 3 months) both between and within studies. Therefore, a continuous time meta-analysis based on longitudinal studies was conducted. This approach enables one to examine how the strength of the relationship between conspiracy beliefs and COVID-19 preventive behavior depends on the time interval. In total, 1035 correlations were coded for 17 samples (N = 16,350). The results for both the full set of studies and a subset consisting of 13 studies corroborated the existence of reciprocal effects. Furthermore, there was some evidence of publication bias. The largest cross-lagged effects were observed between 3 and 6 months, which can inform decision-makers and researchers when carrying out interventions or designing studies examining the consequences of new conspiracy theories.