A consensus model under framework of prospect theory with acceptable adjustment and endo-confidence

Abstract

Consensus is an important issue in group decision making to make a reliable and scientific decision, and it has become a hot topic recently. Due to the complexity and uncertainty of decision-making problems, several aspects of alternatives should be considered in decision-making process. Also, the bounded rational characteristics of decision makers (DMs) may significantly affect the decision results. This paper proposes a multi-criteria consensus model based on prospect theory (PT) to consider the unsymmetrical risk attitudes of DM for gain or loss and on endo-confidence (confidence which is derived by DMs’ evaluation information) levels of DMs to determine their weights. First, the reference point in PT is selected and how to measure the prospect consensus degree is presented. Then, the way to identify the expert who need to modify his/her evaluation is given and two programming models are proposed to obtain the updated evaluation. Subsequently, both the overall difference and the endo-confidence level of the DM are used to determine the weights of DMs. Finally, an illustrative example and the comparative analysis are used to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed model.