A consensus-based simulation model for management in the Patagonia coastal zone

Abstract

We applied computer modeling as a consensus building tool as part of the development of the Patagonia Coastal Zone Management Plan (PCZMP). The objective was to build a ‘scoping model’ to assess some of the important ecological and economic interlinkages of the coastal zone of Patagonia. The main purposes were to build consensus, integrate across several parts of the system. and to educate stakeholders about other sectors, not to create a detailed research model. Nevertheless, the model provides some interesting preliminary conclusions. This model indicates that the total net present value (NPV) of the fisheries sector over a period of 40 years may be increased by 13% compared with current income, with a decrease in hake fishing levels by ≈50%. The natural capital on which the fishery sector depends would be used in a more sustainable way, both ecologically and economically. The model also simulates possible impacts of oil spills and dumping of tanker ballast water on the penguin population. which can have a significant negative impact on tourist industry incomes. The model implies that the importance of the tourist sector in Patagonia could in the future greatly exceed the value of the fishing industry (by 29%). The results argue for more emphasis on integrating the currently disparate components of coastal zone management.