Abstract
An accurate forecast of the area of drought disaster is vitally important for the government to take appropriate measures to prevent disaster. In the current study, a new conformable fractional discrete grey model is applied to study the trend of the area affected by drought disasters. Firstly, the new model, abbreviated as CFDGM(1,1), is proposed with the definitions of the conformable fractional operator and the classical GM(1,1) model. Then the recursive expression of the time response function is obtained by the grey basic form, and the linear system parameters are confirmed by the linear least squares method. Further, the Salp Swarm Algorithm is chosen to determine the optimal conformable fractional order. Finally, the area of drought disaster is studied by the new model and others, where the results show the new model has a good performance among these models.
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