Abstract
Quantitative models are powerful tools for informing conservation management and decision‐making. As applied modeling is increasingly used to address conservation problems, guidelines are required to clarify the scope of modeling applications and to facilitate the impact and acceptance of models by practitioners. We identify three key roles for quantitative models in conservation management: (a) to assess the extent of a conservation problem; (b) to provide insights into the dynamics of complex social and ecological systems; and, (c) to evaluate the efficacy of proposed conservation interventions. We describe 10 recommendations to facilitate the acceptance of quantitative models in conservation management, providing a basis for good practice to guide their development and evaluation in conservation applications. We structure these recommendations within four established phases of model construction, enabling their integration within existing workflows: (a) design (two recommendations); (b) specification (two); (c) evaluation (one); and (d) inference (five). Quantitative modeling can support effective conservation management provided that both managers and modelers understand and agree on the place for models in conservation. Our concise review and recommendations will assist conservation managers and modelers to collaborate in the development of quantitative models that are fit‐for‐purpose, and to trust and use these models appropriately while understanding key drivers of uncertainty.
Highlights
Implementing effective conservation management is crucial in the face of the current biodiversity crisis (Ceballos, Ehrlich, & Dirzo, 2017; Groves & Game, 2016; Pimm et al, 2014; Waldron et al, 2013)
A critical role for quantitative modeling in applied conservation has been recently highlighted by the Intergovernmental SciencePolicy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES)(Akçakaya et al, 2016) and is analogous to the indispensable role of climate modeling for the assessments made by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Pachauri et al, 2014)
Quantitative models have served an important role in generating effective conservation actions (Addison et al, 2013; Brook et al, 2000; Conroy & Peterson, 2013; McCarthy et al, 2010; Nicholson et al, 2018; Schmolke et al, 2010)
Summary
Implementing effective conservation management is crucial in the face of the current biodiversity crisis (Ceballos, Ehrlich, & Dirzo, 2017; Groves & Game, 2016; Pimm et al, 2014; Waldron et al, 2013). The development of quantitative models to influence conservation management will benefit from guidelines that, on the one hand, can be used by modelers to construct fit-forpurpose models and, on the other, can be used by practitioners and end-users to benchmark the quality and reliability of any quantitative model (Addison et al, 2013; Conroy & Peterson, 2013; Guillera-Arroita, Lahoz-Monfort, Elith, et al, 2015; Schmolke et al, 2010). Consulting with end-users during the construction of the model (recommendation 1) could reduce the likelihood of making untenable assumptions, and increases the likelihood of producing quantitative models that can genuinely influence conservation management. Sharing of code and programs should be a goal whenever possible
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have